########################################################################

# Probit models.

# WinBUGS crashes without standardizing the covariate, age.

########################################################################

model

{

for(i in 1:n)

{

# likelihood

survival[i] ~ dbin(p[i], 1)

p[i] <- phi(b[1]+b[2]*(age[i]-mean(age[]))/sd(age[])

+b[3]*male[i])

}

b[1] ~ dnorm(0.001, 0.001)

b[2] ~ dnorm(0.001, 0.001)

b[3] ~ dnorm(0.001, 0.001)

b.cons <- b[1] -b[2]*mean(age[])/sd(age[])

b.age <- b[2] / sd(age[])

b.male <- b[3]

# Prediction of Survival probability for male with age 15-65

for(i in 1:51)

{

sp.age[i] <- 14+i

sp.male[i] <- phi(b.cons+b.age*sp.age[i]+b.male)

sp.female[i] <- phi(b.cons+b.age*sp.age[i])

}

}

# Initial values

list( b = c(0, 0, 0))

# Data 1

list(n =45)

# Data 2

age[] male[] survival[]

23 1 0

40 0 1

40 1 1

30 1 0

28 1 0

40 1 0

45 0 0

62 1 0

65 1 0

45 0 0

25 0 0

28 1 1

28 1 0

23 1 0

22 0 1

23 0 1

28 1 1

15 0 1

47 0 0

57 1 0

20 0 1

18 1 1

25 1 0

60 1 0

25 1 1

20 1 1

32 1 1

32 0 1

24 0 1

30 1 1

15 1 0

50 0 0

21 0 1

25 1 0

46 1 1

32 0 1

30 1 0

25 1 0

25 1 0

25 1 0

30 1 0

35 1 0

23 1 1

24 1 0

25 0 1

END