########################################################################
# Section 6.10 Stanford Heart Transplant Data
(using 0's trick)
########################################################################
model
{
for(i in 1:n)
{
#
Likelihood
llk_nt_0[i] <-
log(p)+p*log(lambda)-(p+1)*log(lambda+survtime[i])
llk_nt_1[i] <- p*log(lambda)-p*log(lambda+survtime[i])
llk_t_0[i] <- log(p)+log(tau)+p*log(lambda)
-(p+1)*log(lambda+timetotransplant[i]+tau*survtime[i])
llk_t_1[i] <- p*log(lambda)
-p*log(lambda+timetotransplant[i]+tau*survtime[i])
loglk[i]
<- (1-transplant[i])*(1-state[i])*llk_nt_0[i]
+(1-transplant[i])*
state[i]
*llk_nt_1[i]
+ transplant[i] *(1-state[i])*llk_t_0[i]
+ transplant[i] * state[i] *llk_t_1[i]
mu[i] <- -loglk[i]+10000
# Add some large constant to make lam[i] >
0
zeros[i] <- 0
zeros[i] ~ dpois(mu[i])
}
tau <- exp(ltau)
lambda <- exp(llambda)
p <- exp(lp)
ltau ~dnorm(0,
0.000001)
llambda ~dnorm(0,
0.000001)
lp ~dnorm(0, 0.000001)
#
Estimate Pr(Tau<= 1|y): Lower risk with a
transplant operation?
tau.le.1
<- step(1 - tau)
# Prediction of
survival function
for(t in 1:240)
{
S[t]
<- exp( p*log(lambda) - p*log(lambda + t) )
time[t] <- t
}
}
# Initial values.
list(
ltau = 0, llambda=0, lp=0 )
# Data
list(n = 82)
# Data
survtime[] transplant[] timetotransplant[] state[]
49 0 0 0
5 0 0 0
17 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
39 0 0 0
84 0 0 0
7 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
35 0 0 0
36 0 0 0
1400 0 0 1
5 0 0 0
34 0 0 0
15 0 0 0
11 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
39 0 0 0
8 0 0 0
101 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
148 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
68 0 0 0
31 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
20 0 0 0
118 0 0 1
91 0 0 1
427 0 0 1
15 1 0 0
3 1 35 0
624 1 50 0
46 1 11 0
127 1 25 0
61 1 16 0
1350 1 36 0
312 1 27 0
24 1 19 0
10 1 17 0
1024 1 7 0
39 1 11 0
730 1 2 0
136 1 82 0
1379 1 24 1
1 1 70 0
836 1 15 0
60 1 16 0
1140 1 50 1
1153 1 22 1
54 1 45 0
47 1 18 0
0 1 4 0
43 1 1 0
971 1 40 1
868 1 57 1
44 1 0 0
780 1 1 1
51 1 20 0
710 1 35 1
663 1 82 1
253 1 31 0
147 1 40 0
51 1 9 0
479 1 66 1
322 1 20 0
442 1 77 1
65 1 2 0
419 1 26 1
362 1 32 1
64 1 13 0
228 1 56 0
65 1 2 0
264 1 9 1
25 1 4 0
193 1 30 1
196 1 3 1
63 1 26 0
12 1 4 0
103 1 45 1
60 1 25 1
43 1 5 1
END